Should Denmark join the Euro-Zone? - Final news and polls: (To see polls up to September 28 please scroll down.)
Headlines September 28:
Denmarks voters rejected the Euro.
53,2 voted NO and 46,8% voted YES!
 | Exit polls of September 28 (TV2/Magafon
and Gallup):
|
| Time | Yes | NO | Base (n) |
| 1 P.M. / Megafon | 47.5% | 52.5% | 6000 |
| 3 P.M. / Megafon | 48.5% | 51.5% | 10.000 |
| 5 P.M. / Megafon | 49.2% | 50.8% | 15.000 |
| 8 P.M. /Gallup | 50.0% | 50.0% | (2000?) |
| Almost nothing new happened today. The newspapers were full of political ads trying to persuade Danes to vote yes or no. The very last television debate - all top politicians did participate - probably changed nothing. |
| According to the polls - currently 3-4 are published every day - the result will be VERY close (scroll down to see today´s polls). Our best guess right now is 50:50. However, the outcome will be a yes OR a no... |
| During election day (28), there will be
exit-polls. We expect to provide you with the latest news in about 12 hours.
So stay tooned... |
Headlines September 26:
| Several top-politicians affiliated with the no-camp do not exclude that Denmark joins the Euro at a later point of time, provided that both Great Britain and Sweden decide to joint the Euro as a consequence of popular referendums. According to yes-sayers, this point of view undermines the fundamental argument of the yes-side, namely that the Euro will never work. - Jyllands Posten, September 26. |
| This evening there was a big panel debate on Danish prime TV (DR-TV). ALL top politicians participated. According to observers neither the yes or the no camp won. The outcome of the game seemed to be undecided. |
September 25:
| Click here to read the Economists brand new editorial on the Danish referendum and its consequences. |
| Today many foreign journalists have
started arriving in Denmark. They try doing their best explaining why plain
Danes - unlike citizens in all other remaining EU-countries - have to vote
on the Euro. |
| Several national dailies cover a high brow joint press conference involving all Danish yes-parties. The press conference - held yesterday - included the leaders of both the two government parties and the three opposition parties. During the conference, all politicians strongly favored a yes. It is the first time ever that a Danish Government and the country's big opposition parties join forces in a press conference. - BT September 25 |
| Two top politicians representing the no campaign, Holger K. Nielsen (Peoples Socialist Party) and Pia Kjærsgaard (Danish Peoples Party) ask the prime minister what will happen, if the outcome of the referendum will be a yes? According to the Edinburgh-treatment (1993) Denmark has four exemption clauses concerning our EU-membership (the EURO, Juridical co-operation, Military co-operation, and European citizenship). Nielsen and Kjærsgaard are eager to know, when the next exemption cause will generate a referendum. Today, the Danish foreign minister on TV ensured that a referendum will be held concerning each of the three remaining referendums - regardless if the referendum on the Euro becomes a no. |
Headlines September 24:
| "Nyrup states that Government will provide defensive actions after a no vote" - Jyllands Posten, September 24 |
| Today four polls were published. Three polls indicate that the lead of the yes-camp is declining and that the outcome of the election promises to be very close (scroll down to see the specifics). The distance in percentages between yes and no seems to be narrowing. The well-known Danish "election day referendum nightmare" lies right ahead - So stay tuned... |
| A no-camp leader Mrs. Drude Dahlerup (Movement of June 1992) complains that the press these days favor viewpoints of yes-sayers. The editorial of all national dailies (except the tabloid Ekstra Bladet) recommend a yes-vote. Furthermore, the overwhelming majority of ads by political parties, companies and opinion leaders argue in favor of a yes-vote. However, editors of electronic as well as print media stress that they are committed towards objectivity. |
Headlines September 23:
| According to the Chair of the Danish
Labor Organization (LO), Hans Jensen, Danish workers will on average have
their annual disposable income reduced by 5450 DKK (730 Euro) if the result
of the referendum becomes a no. This figure is denied by no-sayers.
- Jyllands Posten, September 23 |
| "Ready for the Disaster"
- B.T., September 23 Prime minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen is preparing for a no-scenario. He has recognized that the referendum may well be "lost" (most Danish politicians regard referendums as a win/loose situation). Consequently, he and his ministers of finance and economy are getting ready to protect the Danish Krone during the days after the referendum. |
| Still all polls show a majority of
no-sayers. However, several scientists wonder if some voters, providing
no-answers when they are called by a polling-company, may once more make up
their mind and vote yes on the day of the election. When being called these
people want to "demonstrate" that they do not trust the
politicians concerning EU-related topics. Therefore, they "vote"
no. It is free and without consequences to "punish" the government
and the yes-camp by casting a no "vote" in a poll. However, on
election day the vote really counts and the outcome has economical and
political consequences. It is speculated that such voters may be "frightened
by their own shadow" (Danish saying) and eventually vote yes. If
such voters exist and if they make up 5-10% of the electorate, then their
behavior makes it impossible to make implications from polls to the outcome
of the referendum on September 28. |
| The central banks of USA, Japan, Great
Britain and the European Central Bank on September 22 intervened on the
financial markets and bought Euros. The purpose was to stop the worsening
exchange rate of the Euro vis-a-vis the USD and other mayor currencies. Some
experts think that this intervention was partially caused by the upcoming
Danish referendum. The central bankers in Frankfurt, so the argument goes,
wanted to give the yes-camp a helping hand. Who knows .............. -
Jyllands
Posten, September 22. |
Headlines September 22:
| Several polls are published that may help explaining why the no-side is way ahead in the polls. According to one poll by Greens (Børsen, September 22th) one of three voters state that the falling value of the Euro - as compared to the USD - play a role concerning their intention to vote yes or no. only 15% of voters refer to the EU-sanctions against Austria. However, it assmued that almost all these voters have become much more sceptical towards EU as consequence of these sanctions aimed at boycotting a small souvereign state. The same poll also shows that while yes-sayers do not think that their pensions will be lowered or eroded if we join the Euro-Zone, almost half ot no-sayers think this will be the case. Another poll by Dansk Markedsanalyse, published in Jyllands Posten (September 19th) show that five out of six voters (84%) expect the average pension in Denmark to fall. The overwhelming majority think that the amount which retired Danes are to receive in twenty to thirty years from now will be lower than today. |
Headlines September 21:
| "A no-vote implies the loss of
20.000 jobs" - Politiken, September 21. Today, the ministers of Economy and Finance (Marianne Jelved and Mogens Lykketoft) attended a press conference where they informed the audience that a no-vote "is not without consequences". On the other hand, a yes vote, according to the ministers, will benefit the Danish Society. Assumed that Denmark joins the Euro-Zone, the Danish welfare system will gain approximately 20 billion DKK across the next five years. Thus, a yes vote will enable the government to lower taxes, improve the welfare system etc. |
Headlines September 20:
| Prime minister Rasmussen is still confident that the outcome of the referendum will be a yes. Says Rasmussen:, "The battle is not lost." According Rasmussen a yes-vote implies more welfare and influence. Furthermore, he will not resign, assumed that the referendum will be "lost" (no-vote). Jyllands Posten Online, September 20th. |
Headlines September 19:
| The Euro is still fading. For the first
time it is worth less than ,85 USD. Since it's launch it has lost 30% of its
value. - Jyllands Posten
Online, September 19.
|
| Sunday evening Prime Minister Nyrup Rasmussen on prime time TV publicly announced that one of the coming days he would send a letter to all EU-Prime Ministers asking them to assure that the Danish pension system is guaranteed for many years and that the EU will not legislate on matters concerning the Danish pension system (the Minister of Economy Mrs. Marianne Jelved even suggested that the pensions are guaranteed "at least until the year 2045"). However, during Tuesday Nyrup Rasmussen changed his mind and gave up sending the letter (ALL newspaper's editorials and top-politicians strongly advised him not to send this letter, because it might hurt the yes campaign - due to his low popular credibility (Reason: se Jyllands Posten September 18, right below). - Obviously, Mr. Rasmussen presently is very frustrated by the bad polls. According to an interview by German news magazine Der Spiegel he refuses to resign if he "looses" the popular referendum. On the contrary, he "threatens" to stay... Der Spiegel, No. 18, 2000 and several Danish Dailies, September 19. |
Headlines September 18:
| All yes-parties (Social Democrats, Left Liberals, Conservatives, Right Liberals and Center Democrats) agree on issuing a "guarantee" concerning the pensions: According to the parties, the Danish pension system is ensured and will not be changed for many years to come (The minister of Economy says that the pensions are safe at least until the year 2045). The prime minister Nyrup Rasmussen has stated that the guarantee will be part of the "magna charta" of the government. Problem is: Two times prior to the last Danish election, the prime minister has issued guarantees (concerning the welfare system and EU-related topics) that he was not able to fulfill ("Read my lips..."), Jyllands Posten, September 18. |
Headlines September 16:
| Head
of the European Cental bank denies that the Euro-Zone will evolve into a
European Superstate. -
Berlingske Tidende, September 16 |
| "The yes-side panics" - Jyllands Posten, September 16. Proponents are frustrated by recent polls, indicating that the outcome of the referendum will be a no. The no-side has come up with a very effective argument: If we join the Euro-Zone, the "pension-for-everyone" (one of the corner stones of the Danish welfare system) is in danger. The pension system will be privatized and everyone will have to take care of himself. The Government (Social Democrats and Left Liberals) want to join forces with the big opposition parties (Right Liberals and Conservatives). The purpose is to launch a joint campaign during the remaining 12 days. |
Recent Polls:
| Agency | Day of Publication | Yes | No | ? |
| GfK | September 27 | 47 | 47 | 6 |
| Vilstrup | September 27 | 44 | 43 | 13 |
| Gallup | September 27 | 49.5 | 50.5 | - |
| Megafon | September 27 | 44 | 46 | 10 |
| Gallup | September 26 | 42 | 46 | 12 |
| GfK | September 25 | 41 | 44 | 15 |
| Gallup | September 25 | 42 | 46 | 12 |
| Vilstrup | September 25 | 45 | 43 | 12 |
| Megafon | September 25 | 43 | 48 | 9 |
| Gallup | September 24 | 44 | 46 | 10 |
| Vilstrup | September 24 | 43 | 44 | 13 |
| Megafon | September 24 | 40 | 51 | 9 |
| Sonar | September 24 | 42 | 44 | 14 |
| Vilstrup | September 23 | 41 | 45 | 14 |
| Gallup | September 22 | 40 | 48 | 12 |
| Vilstrup | September 22 | 38 | 48 | 14 |
| Greens | September 22 | 44 | 51 | 5 |
| Gallup | September 21 | 38 | 49 | 13 |
| Vilstrup | September 21 | 40 | 47 | 13 |
| Gallup | September 19 | 38 | 49 | 13 |
| Vilstrup | September 19 | 42 | 45 | 13 |
| Gallup | September 18 | 37 | 49 | 14 |
| Vilstrup | September 18 | 40 | 42 | 18 |
| DS | September 16 | 43 | 49 | 8 |
| Gallup | September 16 | 40 | 45 | 15 |
| Megafon | September 15 | 40 | 49 | 11 |
| Greens | September 15 | 44 | 49 | 7 |
| Gallup | September 15 | 40 | 44 | 16 |
| Vilstrup | September 15 | 40 | 44 | 16 |
| Gallup | September 13 | 40 | 45 | 15 |
| Vilstrup | September 12 | 41 | 41 | 18 |
| Vilstrup | September 11 | 42 | 40 | 18 |
| Gallup | September 10 | 40 | 45 | 15 |
| Vilstrup | September 10 | 43 | 38 | 19 |
| Gallup | September 9 | 40 | 45 | 15 |
| Vilstrup | September 9 | 43 | 38 | 19 |
| Gallup | September 8 | 41 | 44 | 15 |
| Vilstrup | September 7 | 42 | 38 | 20 |
| Gallup | September 7 | 42 | 43 | 15 |
| GfK | September 7 | 45 | 42 | 13 |
| Greens | September 6 | 48 | 44 | 8 |
| Gallup | September 6 | 42 | 41 | 17 |
| Gallup | September 5 | 43 | 41 | 16 |
| Gallup | September 4 | 42 | 40 | 18 |
Note: Most polls are based on approximately 1000 interviews. Usually, they have been collected between two and five days prior to publication in the newspapers. Gallup and Vilstrup do not conduct 1000 "fresh" interviews each day. Basically, they carry out about 200 interviews a day. Then, after five days, they have collected 1000 interviews and publish this as a poll. On day six they carry out 200 new interviews. Next, they delete the 200 interviews that were conducted on day one. Thus the poll published on day six (in the evening) will be based on the 1000 interviews conducted on days two to six. And so on. It is strange, though, that the change in yes/no-percentages sometimes vary considerably from one day to the next, since 80% of the interviews will be "recycled" from yesterday's poll. If figures concerning, say, the no-percentage goes up 2-3 units from one day to the next, then consequently, the raw number of the 200 interviews carried out on that day must have contained 10%-15% more - new - no-sayers than yes-sayers. While this is not impossible due to the small daily sample, it is very unlikely, though. The only other explanation to these strange day-to-day variations seems to be that the polling agencies change method across the period under observation or that they allow for weights that vary across time i.e. so that interviews collected today are given a higher weight than interviews collected several days ago.